Maharashtra political crisis: Five possible scenarios that may happen

Times of India | 3 days ago | 22-06-2022 | 10:41 am

Maharashtra political crisis: Five possible scenarios that may happen

NEW DELHI: With Sena veteran Eknath Shinde rebelling against the party leadership and signalling plans to join hands with BJP, the political situation in Maharashtra has become fluid. TOI maps out the likely scenarios:1. Shinde camp needs to win over 37 Sena MLAs (2/3rds of total) to ensure rebels do not get disqualified under the anti-defection law. If the Shinde faction gets to this number and decides to back BJP or even merge with it, there could be regime change. Speculation is he may have the support of 12-13 MLAs now, mostly from Rane, Raigad and areas outside Mumbai. Support of the 13 Sena MLAs from Mumbai is unlikely. Read AlsoMaharashtra govt on edge after Shiv Sena minister Eknath Shinde revoltsThe MVA government in Maharashtra plunged into a political crisis on Tuesday with a major revolt in Shiv Sena led by urban development minister Eknath Shinde, a powerful grassroots leader who has long felt sidelined. This is seen as one of the biggest rebellions in the history of the 56-year-old2. Shinde's rebellion may force Sena leadership to split MVA- the rebels' key demand- and form a government with BJP. Shinde is keen to see Sena revert to Hindutva, the cornerstone of the party's electoral strategy for decades. The Shinde camp believes Sena's prospects have considerably dimmed as a result of the "secular" alliance with Congress- NCP. The restoration formula envisages a CM from BJP and deputy CM (preferably Shinde) from Sena, along with 10-12 Sena ministers. Uddhav Thackeray will have to step down as CM. Read AlsoCan this ‘Sena loyalist’ topple Maharashtra government?Just a few days back, he had accompanied Aditya Thackeray, CM Uddhav Thackeray’s son, on a much publicised visit to Ayodhya. Eknath Shinde is now holed up in a five-star hotel in Guwahati, ready to bring down the Maharashtra government. What changed?3. Sena leadership may manage to assuage Shinde and other rebels and bring them back into the fold. If this happens, Shinde will remain a minister but will have much less clout as a grassroots leader. Sena's leadership will cut him to size and shift control in the Thane district where he currently holds sway. Shinde may take years to regain Matoshree's trust. Other possibility, though remote, is Shinde may have the upper hand if he returns to Sena. In a quid pro quo, Thackeray's may cede more ground to him. Read AlsoEknath Shinde: Auto driver, diehard Sainik, neta with a grudgeEknath Shinde, who has engineered the biggest revolt to hit Shiv Sena in over 15 years, has been a die-hard Sainik since the 1980s. Even as he raised the banner of revolt, he signalled his commitment to the Hindutva cause and paid tribute to his mentors with a tweet, "We are Balasaheb's staunch Shiv4. Sena may continue as a part of MVA after expelling Shinde for dissident activities. Sena will try to ensure that he alone pays for the rebellion and that all MLAs who supported him continue to remain with the party. In this case, Shinde may eventually join BJP to protect his turf in Thane, draw a few more Sena veterans to his side, and gear up for next assembly and general elections in 2024. Read AlsoDevendra Fadnavis strikes yet again after cultivating Eknath ShindeMUMBAI: During the budget session of the state legislature this year, an interaction between opposition leader Devendra Fadnavis and urban development minister Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena stood out for its cordiality given the bitterness between BJP and Sena for the last 2.5 years. Fadnavis had5. If Shinde and his camp refuse to back down, they could bide time until the monsoon session. Given MVA's defeats in RS polls and MLC elections, the prevailing mood among independents and smaller parties is not favourable to the coalition. MLAs from the Shinde camp could resign, a la BJP's Operation Lotus in Karnataka in 2019. A trust vote in this situation may tip the scales. Sena MLAs who quit could then contest byelections on BJP tickets. If they win, BJP will form the government. Alternatively, if the MVA government loses the trust vote and the government is dissolved, Centre may impose President's rule and Maharashtra could head for mid-term polls.

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Rival Shiv Sena factions call meetings as Maharashtra political crisis continues: Key developments
Times of India | 41 minutes ago | 25-06-2022 | 12:05 pm
Times of India
41 minutes ago | 25-06-2022 | 12:05 pm

NEW DELHI: There is no end in sight for the Maharashtra political crisis and the tussle within the Shiv Sena, as the rebel MLAs led by Eknath Shinde seem prepared to stay put in Guwahati. They are awaiting clarity on two moot points before contemplating a return to Mumbai- the possible disqualification of 16 dissident MLAs and the appointment of the chief whip in the legislative assembly. The battle could well get dragged to the courts as the two sides look closely at the legal options available. Eknath Shinde tweets rebel MLA's letter to Thackeray: CM was inaccessible to usUddhav Thackeray has called a meeting of the party's national executive committee on Saturday at 1pm. The meeting will be held at Mumbai's Shiv Sena Bhavan which the CM will join virtually. Maharashtra crisis live updatesThe rebel faction of Eknath Shinde will also convene for a meeting at Radisson Blu Hotel in Guwahati this afternoon to discuss further strategy, sources said. Maharashtra crisis: Shiv Sena workers smear black ink on rebel MLA Sada Sarvankar's postersHere are the latest developments in the Maharashtra political saga: Eknath Shinde writes to CM Thackeray over security concernsRebel Shiv Sena MLA Eknath Shinde has shot off a letter to Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and all police commissioners in the state, claiming that the security to the family members of the 38 "rebel" MLAs have been "maliciously" withdrawn. He alleged that MVA leaders have instigated their cadres to take up violence against the rebel MLAs and intimidate them. Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut has threatened that they would not be able to move around in Maharashtra, he said. Shinde further said that in Punjab, the security of high profile persons was removed and then they became the targets of goons and gangsters. he expressed concern that the same could happen in Maharashtra. Reacting to Shinde's letter, Sena MP Sanjay Raut said only MLAs are eligible for state security, but not their families. Shortly afterwards, Maharashtra home minister Dilip Walse Patil said in a tweet that no orders have been issued by the CM or home department to remove the security of any MLA. The allegations are totally false and misleading. 'Skipping meet no ground for disqualification'The political drama unfolding in Maharashtra now has legal experts divided too on whether disqualification can be sought for the 'rebels' in Shiv Sena. However, most are in agreement that the MLAs cannot be disqualified on grounds of not attending recent party meetings as that is outside the ambit of legislative affairs. Why Eknath Shinde's rebellion made Shiv Sena stop and take noteThe party's petition to the deputy speaker seeking disqualification of 16 MLAs including rebel leader Eknath Shinde has sought to invoke para 2 (1) (a) of the 10th Schedule of the Indian Constitution, which governs 'disqualification on grounds of defection'. Maha crisis: Eknath Shinde showcases strength, releases first video with 42 rebel MLAs from Guwahati280 MVA decisions in 4 days; ‘rebels’ arranged orders, funds before flightThe MVA government led by CM Uddhav Thackeray has taken 280 decisions since Monday. "It seems that the rebel cabinet members ensured that all relevant orders are issued before they leave Mumbai, an official said. "They took proper care: orders have been issued and adequate budgetary provisions made for the purpose," he said. Read AlsoOptions before Eknath Shinde: Approach court or governorFour days after rebel Shiv Sena member Eknath Shinde raised the banner of revolt against the leadership of Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray, the moot question is what are the options before him. Experts said since the 10th schedule of the anti-defection law amended in 2003 does not recognise a split,Provisions have been made for Rs 1,200 crore for providing power at a concessional rate for industrial consumers in the backward areas in Vidarbha, Marathwada and north Maharashtra. Provisions have also been made for distribution of bulk water to private housing societies. As many as 18 decisions have been taken by the water supply department controlled by rebel minister Gulabrao Patil. 'Rebels in no hurry to leave Guwahati until key issues resolved'Former minister and Shiv Sena MLA Deepak Kesarkar, who is now in the Eknath Shinde camp, told TOI on Friday said the rebel group is in no hurry to return to Maharashtra until two issues - the possible disqualification of 16 dissident MLAs and the appointment of the chief whip in the legislative assembly- are resolved. Kesarkar said, "How can they have their chief whip when their house strength has dwindled to 15 members. Our group has the support of 38 Sena MLAs. These moves are completely unconstitutional. If there is a vote of no-confidence, the downfall of the present government will be imminent." "The petition for disqualification of the 16 MLAs is on ground that they did not attend a meeting of Sena legislators. This meeting was called at very short notice and they must remember that Maharashtra is a big state and, in some parts, it takes at least 10-12 hours to reach Mumbai. How can these MLAs travel from their home district to Mumbai in such a short time? " he said.

Rival Shiv Sena factions call meetings as Maharashtra political crisis continues: Key developments
Maharashtra political crisis: Rebel MLAs cannot be disqualified for absence at party meetings as that’s outside assembly, say experts
Times of India | 4 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 08:31 am
Times of India
4 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 08:31 am

MUMBAI: The political drama unfolding in Maharashtra now has legal experts divided too on whether disqualification can be sought for the ‘rebels’ in the Shiv Sena. However, most are in agreement that the MLAs cannot be disqualified on grounds of not attending recent party meetings as that is outside the ambit of legislative affairs. The party’s petition to the deputy speaker seeking disqualification of 16 MLAs including rebel leader Eknath Shinde has sought to invoke para 2 (1) (a) of the 10th Schedule of the Indian Constitution, which governs ‘disqualification on grounds of defection’. A senior counsel from Delhi said the party may be relying on a 2019 Supreme Court judgment in a Karnataka case to argue that the actions of the MLAs would “portray defection.” The Sena plea is that at a “crucial time” during “political uncertainty” when the party needed to consolidate, meetings were called on June 21-22 and despite issuing notices, these MLAs did not attend and instead left for Surat and Guwahati which are in BJP-ruled States. The plea said the BJP, in a conspiracy with these MLAs, is trying to topple the govt and in these circumstances, their not attending the meetings amounted to voluntarily giving up membership of the party; remaining incommunicado and not responding to the call of the leadership also shows that they have given up membership and hence they should be disqualified, it said. However, former attorney general S G Aney said the disqualification process would be “void” legally as not attending the meetings would not amount to quitting the party. Lack of attendance at meetings “cannot be taken into the realm of legislature’s action and the Speaker has no authority over the matter. At best it would be a matter for the party’s internal consideration for consequences on such unbecoming behavior,” said Aney. Anil Sakhare, a senior counsel, also agreed that at this juncture it may not attract disqualification. Senior counsel Prasad Dhakephalkar said the situation is “very fluid’’ but if by their conduct it can be shown that they have left the party, then it may attract disqualification. “But rebels can claim merger,” he added. To overcome any threat of disqualification they have to show 2/3rd members of a party have merged with another party. Under the 10th Schedule paragraph 4, disqualification on grounds of defection would not apply in case of a merger with another party. “It will eventually depend on the facts which at the moment are not all clear,’’ said another senior counsel from Delhi. He added, “At this stage prima facie, there can be no disqualifications since not attending the meeting does not amount to voluntarily giving up the membership of the party. It would depend on the explanation that the member may give. A party cannot single out a few members if there is support of two-third members in the rebel faction. The Karnataka case was different on facts.”

Maharashtra political crisis: Rebel MLAs cannot be disqualified for absence at party meetings as that’s outside assembly, say experts
Covid cases drop slightly in Maharashtra; CM Uddhav Thackeray urges warkaris to use masks
Times of India | 6 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 06:15 am
Times of India
6 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 06:15 am

MUMBAI: While Covid-19 cases dipped in Maharashtra on Friday, chief minister Uddhav Thackeray appealed to lakhs of warkaris walking towards Pandharpur during Ashadhi Wari to use face masks to minimise the risk of Covid-19 transmission. The state had registered its highest single-day tally in this surge on Thursday at 5,218, but cases dropped by 20% to 4,205 on Friday. Mumbai saw a 24% drop, with 1,898 cases registered on Friday. "We had a problem updating our data on the ICMR website for a couple of days and that led to a bunching up of cases on Thursday. But the data is now updated and Mumbai is back to reporting less than 2,000 cases a day," said BMC executive health officer Dr Mangala Gomare. Two nonagenarians with chronic conditions succumbed to Covid-related complications in Mumbai while the neighbouring Thane city registered a death. Daily hospitalisations which had gone past 100 dropped on Friday to 96. The daily test positivity rate which had increased to 20% a few days back was 12% for the second consecutive day. Dr Gomare said that cases should start plateauing soon. Dr Gautam Bhansali, who is a member of the state Covid task force, said that despite the surge, patients are recovering with minimum medication within a few days. "There is no need to panic at all,'' he said. The surge has been limited to five districts-Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Palghar and Raigad-but the state administration is worried about the Pandharpur yatra. Of the 4,205 cases on Thursday, 3,354 (80%) were detected in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. A state official said, "Active cases in the state have crossed 25,000 as compared to 626 a couple of months back. In this backdrop, the chief minister held a video-conference instructing district collectors, municipal commissioners and district police superintendents to take steps to reduce the risk of transmission of Covid-19.'' Meanwhile, another patient of BA.5 variant has been detected in Nagpur. State surveillance officer Dr Pradip Awate said a fully vaccinated 27-year-old female tested Covid-positive on June 19. "She was mildly symptomatic initially but has since become asymptomatic and is stable and in home isolation,'' he added. The total tally of BA.4 and BA.5 variant cases in the state has increased to 26-15 in Pune, five in Mumbai, four in Nagpur and two in Thane.

Covid cases drop slightly in Maharashtra; CM Uddhav Thackeray urges warkaris to use masks
Grim mood in Uddhav Thackeray camp: Sanjay Raut dares rebels to return
Times of India | 7 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 05:44 am
Times of India
7 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 05:44 am

MUMBAI: As the face-off between the Shiv Sena leadership and the rebels drags on, the Thackeray camp has shed its reconciliatory approach. Senior leaders said in the first two days after the crisis blew up, there was a difference of opinion on whether the chief minister should resign and quit the MVA or face a floor test. According to a source, one section suggested that Uddhav Thackeray should resign and talk to the MLAs after leaving the coalition; others advocated a tough line saying the CM must not give in to pressure from dissidents. CM himself made an emotional pitch in his speech on Wednesday. "There was a difference of opinion. It was suggested that since we don't have the numbers and the Shinde camp is only going to swell, there was no point in going for a floor test since the legal battle would take a long time and losing the floor test could cause more embarrassment to the party," a leader said. A press conference by a senior Sena leader like Subhash Desai was suggested but this plan was dropped. Instead spokesman Sanjay Raut took a strident line on Friday. "We will win on the floor of the house, we won't give up. They (MLAs) have taken a very wrong step. We also gave them a chance to return to Mumbai (and mend fences). Now, we challenge them to come to Mumbai," he said. Earlier Raut had said the party is ready to withdraw from the MVA alliance provided the rebels return to Mumbai and meet the CM. Among senior leaders, Anil Parab, Anil Desai, Subhash Desai and Raut are still with Thackeray apart from 17 MLAs. "Meetings were held in Matoshree. There was a difference of opinion on whether a constitutional or legal battle will help now since it will take a long time. A section said had the CM resigned, Eknath Shinde may have come for negotiation. But Raut's view was the party could not surrender; a legal and constitutional battle was the only way out,," a source said.

Grim mood in Uddhav Thackeray camp: Sanjay Raut dares rebels to return
Eknath Shinde’s options: May have to approach courts or governor
Times of India | 7 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 05:18 am
Times of India
7 hours ago | 25-06-2022 | 05:18 am

MUMBAI: Four days after rebel Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde raised the banner of revolt against the leadership of chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, the moot question is what are the options before him. Experts said since the 10th schedule of the anti-defection law amended in 2003 does not recognize a split, there are limited options before Shinde. Till 2003, if 2/3rd of members left a party, they could still form a separate group and not attract the anti-defection law. But since there was no end to defections, the law was further tightened. “Even if you quit the party with 2/3rd members, you still cannot escape disqualification,” former advocate general Ravindra Kadam told TOI. Kadam said Shinde has limited options. “Either he should submit that he represents the original Shiv Sena or he has the option to merge the group with the party which he is proposing to team up with. The new law does not recognize a split,” Kadam said. NCP leader Eknath Khadse said Shinde’s effort to take control of Sena has been thwarted by deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal’s decision to recognize Ajay Choudhary as leader of the Sena legislature party. All orders to enforce a whip or influence voting in the assembly flow from the legislature party leader Khadse said the revolt appears headed for a legal battle. “Whatever is the outcome of the deputy speaker’s decision, Shinde will have to approach the court to prove that he has the authority to appoint a legislative party leader and whip,” Khadse said. Former principal secretary (legislature secretariat) Anant Kalse said since the 10th schedule does not recognize a split, Shinde has limited options. “In my opinion, he should knock at the doors of Raj Bhavan, tell the Governor to convene a special session of the state legislature on the ground that the MVA government has lost majority,” Kalse said.

Eknath Shinde’s options: May have to approach courts or governor